Cameroon 2025 – Analysing Power Dynamics Through an Agentic AI Framework: Elite Rivalries and Succession Strategies

Cameroon is at a critical point in mid-2025. President Paul Biya’s attempts to secure another term have intensified internal power struggles among the country’s elites and revealed fractures within his once-unified ruling coalition. In response, the regime is employing traditional strongman tactics: removing or silencing rivals, reshuDling military leaders to ensure loyalty, and suppressing dissent to retain control. The oDicial stance within the government is one of heightened suspicion and consolidation of power, with Biya surrounding himself with loyal generals to prevent challenges. Meanwhile, long-standing allies from the North are beginning to defect, citing widespread calls for change. Behind closed doors, factions supporting Biya’s son and other influential figures are competing for influence in what is expected to be a forthcoming succession. However, these factions publicly keep a low profile to avoid provoking open conflict under Biya’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Cameroon’s security and stability hang in the balance. The military remains outwardly loyal, yet is stretched thin fighting an Anglophone insurgency and Islamist militants. Suppose Biya stays in command and elections proceed under his control. In that case, the most likely outcome is a managed electoral victory for the ruling party – ensuring near-term continuity but at the cost of popular legitimacy. Such an election (October 2025) would almost certainly be marred by low turnout in conflict areas, allegations of fraud, and an incumbent win that many Cameroonians will view as foregone. We forecast Biya’s official vote share in the 55– 65% range (down from 71% in 2018), with opposition gains in urban and western regions offset by the regime’s entrenched advantages. Regional disparities will be sharp: the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest will remain effectively disenfranchised by war, and the Far North’s vote, once solidly behind Biya, will splinter due to the defection of northern power-brokers.

Post-election scenarios span a spectrum. In the best case, Biya’s camp manages a peaceful transition during the next term – for example, gradually elevating a successor (perhaps Franck Biya or a consensus figure) to take over before crisis strikes. If handled inclusively, this could avert a meltdown and open space for reforms. However, a worse outcome looms if the regime overplays its hand: a contested election followed by public unrest. Cameroon could then enter a dangerous phase of mass protests and heavy-handed repression, especially in cities like Yaoundé and Douala, where youth frustration is boiling over. The regime’s recent digital censorship and arrests of dissidents show it is gearing up to silence any post-election dissent. Yet, a harsh crackdown risks pushing the opposition and disaffected masses beyond the brink, potentially leading to violent confrontations or even fractures within the army if ordered to fire on civilians on a large scale.